What’s a “Super‑Cycle,” Anyway?
A semiconductor super‑cycle is an extended boom in chip demand driven by big‑picture trends—think AI chips, 5G phones, electric cars, and cloud data centers. Instead of the usual two‑to‑three‑year upswings, super‑cycles can last five years or more as new technologies keep piling on fresh demand.
Meet the Three Must‑Watch Names
| Ticker | Why It Matters | Q1 2025 Street View* | One Key Metric |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | World’s largest foundry; makes chips for Apple, AMD & Nvidia | Rev $23.9 B · EPS $1.82 | 3 nm utilization (shows how full their newest fabs are) |
| ASML | Sells the EUV lithography machines every advanced fab needs | Rev $7.24 B · EPS $4.90 | EUV order backlog (signals future chip‑tool demand) |
| NVDA | Dominates AI GPU market; big buyer of TSM’s 3 nm capacity | Rev $10.5 B · EPS $5.73 | Data‑center revenue growth (proxy for AI spending) |
* Consensus estimates from EarningsHub Earnings Calendar
Building a Beginner‑Friendly Dashboard in EarningsHub
- Create a Watchlist
- Add TSM, ASML, NVDA (and bonus names like AMD or Lam Research).
- Pin These Widgets
- Earnings Calendar – shows the next report date and analyst expectations.
- Revenue & EPS Surprise History – visualizes beat / miss trends.
- Cap‑Ex vs. Free Cash Flow – for TSM & NVDA.
- Order Backlog Trend – for ASML.
- Set Smart Alerts
- Earnings‑Day Alert: 1 hour before each call.
- Metric Deviation Alert: get pinged if revenue or EPS is ±5 % from consensus.
How to Read the Numbers
| If You See… | It Usually Means… | Possible Investor Reaction |
|---|---|---|
| TSM cap‑ex jumps but free cash flow dips | They’re adding new fabs—short‑term cost, long‑term growth | Shares may wobble, then recover as capacity fills |
| ASML backlog > 1.5× revenue | Tool demand is still red‑hot | Bullish for equipment makers (AMAT, LRCX) |
| NVDA data‑center sales +80 % YoY | AI build‑out accelerating | Lifts AI‑linked stocks (TSM, MU, AVGO) |
Quick Tips for New Earnings‑Season Trackers
- Listen to the Earnings Call Q&A. CEOs often drop hints about pricing power or capacity constraints.
- Compare Beat/Miss Rates. Companies that beat estimates 6–8 quarters straight often keep momentum.
- Watch Guidance, Not Just Results. Forward‑looking cap‑ex or margin guidance moves semiconductor stocks more than last quarter’s EPS.
Key Takeaways
- Super‑Cycle = Structural Growth. AI, 5G, and EVs are long‑run drivers, not short‑lived fads.
- Three Pillars to Track. TSM (production), ASML (equipment), NVDA (end demand) give a 360° view of the chip supply chain.
- EarningsHub Makes It Simple. One dashboard, real‑time alerts, and easy‑to‑read widgets turn complex chip data into actionable insights.
